There are 31 conference championship bids for the NCAA tournament and 34 at large bids. Most at large bids will come from any one of the six major conferences. (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, SEC).  Usually there is very little difference between at large bids 27-34 and the first 4-7 teams that just miss.  There are close judgment calls to be made and I make them.  What I look for in weening out the last few teams are those who play tougher schedules with good wins. I give weight to non major teams that go on the road to the powerhouses and almost win. I give no weight to middle of the pack teams from big conferences that beat up on 12 cupcakes before the conference schedule, go 8-8 in conference by beating up on the bottom feeders and then expect a bid. 

There are 14 conferences definitely only getting one bid.  They are the American East, the Atlantic Sun, the Big Sky, the Big West, the Colonial, the Ivy League, the Metro Atlantic as Siena dropped off the bubble, the MEAC, the Northeast, the Ohio Valley, the Patriot League, the Soutland, the SWAC, and the Summit League.

Memphis of Conference USA and Butler of the Horizon are locks and will be the only teams going from their conference unless another team wins the conference tournament.

Last year's Cinderella, Davidson of the Southern and one loss Utah State of the WAC are near locks with no other team from their conferences in consideration for at larges.  If Davidson wins out in its regular season and Utah State wins at St Mary's while going at least 5-1 down the stretch to end up 29-2, then they become at large locks. Utah State's win over Utah helps and the Aggies get in as an at large as of today.

Buffalo of the MAC is 17-5, took U Conn to the wire and beat Temple. They must win out in the regular season and get to the MAC semis to be considered for an at large. No other MAC team will be an at large.

Western Kentucky of the Sun Belt is 17-7 with wins over Louisville and Georgia. They must run their last 5 regular season games and get to the Sun Belt semis to be considered for an at large. It still probably won't be enough.

VMI is 20-4 with a good win over Kentucky.  They must finish the regular season 25-4 and then make it to the Big South finals in order to be considered for an at large.  No other team from the Big South will make it as an at large team.

Xavier and Dayton from the Atlantic 10 are locks who project to be a 3 seed and 5 seed respectively.  No other teams gets an at large.

In the West Coast conference, Gonzaga is a near lock as St Mary's has fallen to the bubble at 19-5.  They have 5 regular season games left. They must win 4 of them and get Mills back healthy for the WCC tournament to get an at large.  They are right on that bubble.

In the Mountain West Utah leads the way at 8-2 in conference and if they win the regular season title outright, they should get in based on strength of schedule.  Battling for at large positions are San Diego State and BYU, one of whom would get in right now while UNLV is on the wrong side of the bubble at this point.

In the Missouri Valley, Northern Iowa and Creighton would both get in today with Illinois State on the outside looking in.  Creighton beat Dayton, St Joes and Depaul out of conference and now is entrenched in 2nd place in the conference behind apparent regular season champ Northern Iowa.

Now to the big 6.

In the ACC, Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest, and Florida States are locks right now with BC and VT getting in. Maryland and Miami are on the outside looking in.

In the Big East, Uconn, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville and Villanova are locks.  Cincinnati has made the biggest move and would get in as of today at 17-8 overall and 7-5 in conference.  Their out of conference losses aren't bad at this point.  Syracuse and West Virginia are fading and probably both barely get in as of today.  Providence is on the bubble.  Georgetown and Notre Dame have serious catching up to do.

In the Big Ten, Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State and Purdue are locks. Minnesota looks like a near lock.  Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin are on the bubble and I would take Michigan right now and not the other two because the Wolverines have beaten Duke and UCLA.

In the Big 12, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri are locks.  Texas is a near lock with Kansas State barely on the right side of the bubble.  Texas A&M, Baylor, and Oklahoma State have lots of work to do.

In the Pac 10, UCLA, Arizona State, and Washington are locks.  California, USC and now Arizona would be in as of today.  Stanford has catching up to do and needs 5 of their final 7 to get back on the bubble.

The SEC is down this year in basketball. Florida and LSU are locks with South Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee on the right side of the bubble.  No one else is close to an at large.

I'll check back in a couple of weeks as the regular season winds down.