There are 31 conference championship bids for the NCAA tournament and 34 at large bids. Most at large bids will come from any one of the six major conferences. (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, SEC).  Usually there is very little difference between at large bids 27-34 and the first 4-7 teams that just miss.  There are close calls to be made and they get made.  These are judgment calls.  What I look for in weening out the last few teams are those who play tougher schedules with good wins. I give weight to non major teams that go on the road to the powerhouses and almost win. I give no weight to middle of the pack teams from big conferences that beat up on 12 cupcakes before the conference schedule, go 8-8 in conference by beating up on the bottom feeders and then expect a bid.  I'll start with the Mid Majors first.


Xavier and Dayton from the Atlantic 10 are locks with no other team with an at large case at this point although Temple and St Joes could make a case if they run their regular season schedules. In the Mountain West you have four teams clustered together (Utah, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV) which all look equal on paper. At least 2 should get in, possibly 3.  If they all stay bunched, then the two that meet in the tournament finals probably go to the tournament.  In the West Coast Conference, Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are locks at this point and Portland deserves at large consideration only if they win at least 6 of their final 7 regular season games.  In the Missouri Valley, it looks like Northern Iowa will be the regular season chance. Illinois State and Creighton are 2^nd and 3^rd in the conference and on the bubble.  Creighton has out of conference wins over Dayton, St Joes, and Depaul which help.  Illinois State has played nobody out of conference. If the two meet up in the MVC semis, this could be a play in game.

The other 21 conferences could be one bid conferences depending on who wins the conference tournament. Memphis of Conference USA is a lock, as is Butler of the Horizon and Davidson of the Southern.  If these teams win their conference tournaments, the conferences are 1 bid leagues.  If these teams lose, these teams go as at large.
 
Utah State, at 21-1 is no shoo in from the WAC but would be a strong at large contender. They’ve played nobody.  They have 8 games left vs. weak teams and a big game at St Marys which will help b/c the Gaels will be missing their best player.  If they beat St Mary's and win at least 7 of those 8 games, they'll get in.  A loss to St Mary's and a loss in their conference tournament, even if they are 30-3, does not mean they are going to the NCAA.
 
Other bubble at large contenders from non major conferences include Western Kentucky of the Sun Belt, which has a good win over Louisville.  They are 15-7 and need to run off 7  regular season wins and make it to the Sun Belt semis to garner at large consideration.

Buffalo of the MAC which took Connecticut to the wire and beat Temple. They are 15-5 and must run the regular season table to be considered for an at large. 

VMI is 19-4 and beat Kentucky early on.  They need to run the regular season table.  This team is a poorer version of the old Loyola Marymount teams of the early 1990s.  Then there is Siena at 18-5 which beat Buffalo and St. Jospehs and went out and competitively played Pittsburgh, Oklahoma St. and Tennessee early on.  Their game against Northern Iowa is huge if this team wants to be considered for an at large.  All other conferences are definite 1 bid teams.  Now for the big six.

In the ACC, Duke, North Carolina, Clemson and Wake Forest are locks. Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Florida State probably all get in as of today. Miami is on the outside looking in.

In the Big East, Uconn, Pittsburgh, Marquette and Louisville are locks as is Villanova at this point. Syracuse, West Virginia and Providence probably get in as of today but if either falters down the stretch, that could change. Notre Dame and Georgetown are on the outside looking in. Georgetown at 13-8 has 8 regular season games left. 6 wins puts them in, 5 puts them on the bubble, 4 is trouble.

In the Big Ten, Michigan State, Illinois and Purdue are locks. Penn State, Minnesota, and Ohio State would get in as of today. I think Michigan, despite 4-6 in conference and 14-8 overall deserves to be in.  They have beaten Duke and UCLA.

In the Big 12, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri are locks with Texas close behind. Baylor, Texas A& M, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska are bunched in the middle of the pack. All are probably on the wrong side of the bubble at this point but 1-2 of them can play their way in with strong play down the stretch.

In the Pac 10, UCLA is a lock with Washington, USC, and Arizona State as near locks. California probably just makes it at this point while Arizona just misses. Stanford is on the outside looking in for their 10-0 out of conference record against weak competition is a mirage and their 3-6 in conference record better end up being at least 9-9 in order to be considered for an at large.

The SEC is down this year in basketball. Florida is the only lock with South Carolina, Kentucky, and LSU as near locks. Tennessee gets in as of today because they schedule people. Everyone else has work to do.  The most disappointing is Arkansas which is 1-6 in conference. Out of conference they beat Oklahoma and Texas so if they can turn 1-6 into 7-9, they'll get in.