Given that Alexa and other sites aren't always the best indicators of website stats and given that no matter what statistics I post from outside sources related to Daily Kos that they are going to be attacked as biased and that I as the author am automatically going to be attacked by the Kos cultists with the familiar ad hominems that they are so accustomed to, I'm going to do something that is going to shock them.  I'm going to use THEIR statistics and nothing else.

The main reason why I repeatedly brought up site numbers and certain statistics over the past 2 months is because if these statistics were known by politicians, advertisers, the mainstream media, and ordinary users, Markos Moulitsas is finished in politics.  Markos' perceived power is predicated on a big lie, the big lie being that millions of people go to his site on a daily basis and are participating in his blog and reading the material there and that Daily Kos somehow is a mover and shaker in the Democratic Party.  If the politicians knew that he only gets about 30,000 different active users to visit his site in an ENTIRE YEAR, they would laugh and move on.  And yet I'm being generous.  30,000 a year is far less than several million a day. 

Jotter's statistics reveal that in 2005 DailyKos had 26,523 active users, of whom only 10,068 wrote diaries. Those numbers increased in 2006 to 32,379. of whom 12, 903 wrote diaries.

Jotter did not post yearly statistics for 2007 and did it in quarters.  In quarter 1 it was 17,098 active users with 7,191 diaries.  In quarter 2 it was 16,540 active users who wrote 5,333 diaries.  In quarter 3 it was 17,732 active users who wrote 5,912 diaries and in quarter 4 it was 16,364 active users who wrote 5,251 diaries.  Many of the active users and writers are the same people throughout some or all four quarters.  Given that the turnover rate was about 31% (more on this later) per quarter, my estimates would project the 2007 numbers to be about 25,000 active users and 10,000 diaries.

The statistics for 2008 are more problematic for Jotter never gave the quarterly numbers nor yearly numbers.  But I have weekly numbers.

Week Beginning     Diarists     Active Users
12/20/08                       963             9,143
12/13/08                        1232          10,537
12/6/08                         1081         10,236
11/29/08                        1085         10,743
11/22/08                         1110         11,207
11/15/08                         1599         13,609
11/8/08                         1770         14,911
11/1/08                         3790         18,411
10/25/08                        2991         16,565
10/18/08                         3024         16,356
10/11/08                         2905         16,007
10/4/08                             2961         15,924
9/27/08                             2989         15,917
9/20/08                         3047             14,917
9/13/08                         2863                 --
9/6/08                             3271             15,255
8/30/08                         3245             15,046
8/22/08                         2587             12,844
8/16/08                         1840             11,279
8/9/08                             1472            10,436
8/2/08                             1710            10,752
7/26/08                             1612         10,434
7/19/08                             1407         --
7/12/08                         1487             9,963
7/5/08                            1473             10,197
6/28/08                         1469             10,416
6/21/08                         1547             10,683
6/14/08                         1623             11,087
6/7/08                             1801             11,805
5/31/08                         2208             12,403
5/24/08                         1676             11,310
5/17/08                         1819             11,550
5/10/08                         1767             11,409
5/3/08                             2028             11,435
4/26/08                         1806             10,641
4/19/08                         2054             10,821
4/12/08                         1891             10,252
4/05/08                         1484             10,048
3/29/08                         1720             10,455
3/22/08                         1872             10,462
3/15/08                         1993             10,779
3/8/08                             2089             11,315
3/1/08                             2119             10,975
2/23/08                         1740                10,480
2/16/08                             ---                 10,379
2/09/08                         1954                10,667
2/2/08                             2044             10,352
1/26/08                         1887                 9,967
1/19/08                         1593                 9,315


Mixing yearly, quarterly, and weekly numbers is difficult considering that approximately 31% of users in 2007 who were active in one quarter were inactive for the entire subsequent quarter.  And the task is harder given the daily numbers.

ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS

1.  Each of these numbers overstate the number of real users at Daily Kos.  For example, of the 32,379 users in 2006, many of them were the same person.  Certain users like bughouse may have been 70 of them.  Armando was also BigTentDemocrat and who knows how many other socks.  I've had 3 user names at the site.  It's safe to assume that at least 10-20% of all Daily Kos quarterly active users have multiple user names going on at the site at the same time. So all numbers are much smaller.

2.  According to Jotter, there is about a 31% turnover rate that was constant each quarter in 2007.  That number probably rose in 2008 for a variety of reasons.  Nevertheless, when you lose 31% of your people quarterly and consistently, there's obviously something very rotten in blogmark. A number like that should tell you that there are some very serious problems at the site even if you haven't read my previous articles and you happen to miss the biggie coming Sunday night.

3.  Of the remaining active users, who are they? Some work for the site, others are trolls, some are political operatives, and some are the Kos Kops.   How many ordinary citizens are actually there?  Not that many.

4.  The big drop has been in diary users.  While active users in late January and early February is not much different from the past 4 weeks, the number of diarists has dropped off significantly.  I think a big part of that is the Kos Kops (the real trolls of the site b/c they turn people off) who get pleasure in urinating on people's good faith efforts to participate at the blog.

5.  I expect the decline to continue just as it did at MYDD which by the way dropped out of the top 100,000 for the first time in years. There is only so long that you can treat people like utter crap and get away with it until enough people push back.  That time arrived for Jerome Armstrong long ago and that time has arrived for Kos as he has even dropped below 12,000 on multiple occasions this month.  This is startling given that his site was once a top 500 blog on par with Huffington Post, which by the way is still a top 500 blog.  The drop at Kos has been precipitous and the bottom is still nowhere in site because I estimate that most of his active users would leave the site today if they had something similar to go to.

Those are the numbers. Analyze as you see fit.